I spent most of last week at the European Union’s Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy. I have been collaborating with the scientists in the European Union Reference Laboratory for alternatives to animal testing [EURL ECVAM]. We have been working together on tracking nanoparticles and, more recently, on the validity and credibility of models. Last week I was there to participate in a workshop on Validation and Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence Models in Health. I presented our work on the credibility matrix and on a set of factors that we have developed for establishing trust in a model and its predictions. I left the JRC on Friday evening and slipped back in the UK just before she left the Europe Union. The departure of the UK from Europe reminds me of a novel by José Saramago called ‘The Stone Raft‘ in which the Iberian penisula breaks off from the Europe mainland and drifts around the Atlantic ocean. The bureaucrats in Europe have to run around dealing with the ensuing disruption while five people in Spain and Portugal are drawn together by surreal events on the stone raft adrift in the ocean.
I need to confess to writing a misleading post some months ago entitled ‘In Einstein’s footprints?‘ on February 27th 2019, in which I promoted our 4th workshop on the ‘Validation of Computational Mechanics Models‘ that we held last month at Guild Hall of Carpenters [Zunfthaus zur Zimmerleuten] in Zurich. I implied that speakers at the workshop would be stepping in Einstein’s footprints when they presented their research at the workshop, because Einstein presented a paper at the same venue in 1910. However, as our host in Zurich revealed in his introductory remarks , the Guild Hall was gutted by fire in 2007 and so we were meeting in a fake, or replica, which was so good that most of us had not realised. This was quite appropriate because a theme of the workshop was enhancing the credibility of computer models that are used to replicate the real-world. We discussed the issues surrounding the trustworthiness of models in a wide range of fields including aerospace engineering, biomechanics, nuclear power and toxicology. Many of the presentations are available on the website of the EU project MOTIVATE which organised and sponsored the workshop as part of its dissemination programme. While we did not solve any problems, we did broaden people’s understanding of the issues associated with trustworthiness of predictions and identified the need to develop common approaches to support regulatory decisions across a range of industrial sectors – that’s probably the theme for our 5th workshop!
The MOTIVATE project has received funding from the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 754660 and the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation under contract number 17.00064.
The opinions expressed in this blog post reflect only the author’s view and the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
For a number of years I have been working on methods for validating computational models of structures [see ‘Model validation‘ on September 18th 2012] using the full potential of measurements made with modern techniques such as digital image correlation [see ‘256 shades of grey‘ on January 22nd 2014] and thermoelastic stress analysis [see ‘Counting photons to measure stress‘ on November 18th 2015]. Usually the focus of our interest is at the macroscale, for example the research on aircraft structures in the MOTIVATE project; however, in a new PhD project with colleagues at the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan, we are planning to explore using our validation procedures and metrics  in structural biology.
The size and timescale of protein-structure thermal fluctuations are essential to the regulation of cellular functions. Measurement techniques such as x-ray crystallography and transmission electron cryomicroscopy (Cryo-EM) provide data on electron density distribution from which protein structures can be deduced using molecular dynamics models. Our aim is to develop our validation metrics to help identify, with a defined level of confidence, the most appropriate structural ensemble for a given set of electron densities. To make the problem more interesting and challenging the structure observed by x-ray crystallography is an average or equilibrium state because a folded protein is constantly in motion undergoing harmonic oscillations, each with different frequencies and amplitude .
The PhD project is part of the dual PhD programme of the University of Liverpool and National Tsing Hua University. Funding is available in form of a fee waiver and contribution to living expenses for four years of study involving significant periods (perferably two years) at each university. For more information follow this link.
 Dvurecenska, K., Graham, S., Patelli, E. & Patterson, E.A., A probabilistic metric for the validation of computational models, Royal Society Open Society, 5:180687, 2018.
 Justin Chan, Hong-Rui Lin, Kazuhiro Takemura, Kai-Chun Chang, Yuan-Yu Chang, Yasumasa Joti, Akio Kitao, Lee-Wei Yang. An efficient timer and sizer of protein motions reveals the time-scales of functional dynamics in the ribosome (2018) https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/08/03/384511.
Image: A diffraction pattern and protein structure from http://xray.bmc.uu.se/xtal/
A month or so ago I gave a lecture entitled ‘Establishing FACTS (Fidelity And Credibility in Tests & Simulations)’ to the local branch of the Institution of Engineering Technology (IET). Of course my title was a play on words because the Oxford English Dictionary defines a ‘fact’ as ‘a thing that is known or proved to be true’ or ‘information used as evidence or as part of report’. One of my current research interests is how we establish predictions from simulations as evidence that can be used reliably in decision-making. This is important because simulations based on computational models have become ubiquitous in engineering for, amongst other things, design optimisation and evaluation of structural integrity. These models need to possess the appropriate level of fidelity and to be credible in the eyes of decision-makers, not just their creators. Model credibility is usually provided through validation processes using a small number of physical tests that must yield a large quantity of reliable and relevant data [see ‘Getting smarter‘ on June 21st, 2017]. Reliable and relevant data means making measurements with low levels of uncertainty under real-world conditions which is usually challenging.
These topics recur through much of my research and have found applications in aerospace engineering, nuclear engineering and biology. My lecture to the IET gave an overview of these ideas using applications from each of these fields, some of which I have described in past posts. So, I have now created a new page on this blog with a catalogue of these past posts on the theme of ‘FACTS‘. Feel free to have a browse!