Tag Archives: simulation

Update on position of AI on hype curve: it cannot dream

Decorative image of a flowerIt would appear that I was wrong in 2020 when I suggested that artificial intelligence was near the top of its hype curve [see ‘Where is AI on the hype curve?‘ on August 12th, 2020].  In the past few months the hype has reached new levels.  Initially, there were warnings about the imminent takeover of global society by artificial intelligence; however, recently the pendulum has swung back towards a more measured concern that the nature of many jobs will be changed by artificial intelligence with some jobs disappearing and others being created.  I believe that the bottom-line is that while terrific advances have been made with large language models, such as ChatGPT, artificial intelligence is artificial but it is not intelligent [see ‘Inducing chatbots to write nonsense‘ on February 15th, 2023].  It cannot dream.  It is not creative or inventive, largely because it is very powerful applied statistics which needs data based on what has happened or been produced already.  So, if you are involved in solving mysteries (ill-defined, vague and indeterminate problems) rather than puzzles [see ‘Puzzles and mysteries‘ on November 25th, 2020] then you are unlikely to be replaced by artificial intelligence in the foreseeable future [see ‘When will you be replaced by a computer?‘ on November 20th, 2019].  Not that you should trust my predictions of the future! [see ‘Predicting the future through holistic awareness‘ on January 6th, 2021]

Fairy lights and decomposing multi-dimensional datasets

A time-lapsed series of photographs showing the sun during the day at North Cape in NorwayMany years ago, I had a poster that I bought when I visited North Cape in Norway where in summer the sun never sets.  The poster was a time-series of 24 photographs taken at hourly intervals showing the height of the sun in the sky during a summer day at North Cape, similar to the thumbnail.  We can plot the height of the sun as a function of time of day with time on the horizontal axis and height on the vertical axis to obtain a graph that would be a sine wave, part of which is apparent in the thumbnail.  However, the brightness of the sun also appears to vary during the day and so we could also conceive of a graph where the intensity of a line of symbols represented the height of the sun in the sky.  Like a string of fairy lights in which we can control the brightness of each one individually  – we would have a one-dimensional plot instead of a two-dimensional one.  If we had a flat surface covered with an array of lights – a chessboard with a fairy light in each square – then we could represent three-dimensional data, for instance the distribution of elevation over a field using the intensity of the lights – just as some maps use the intensity of a colour to illustrate elevation.  We can take this concept a couple of stages further to plot four-dimensional data in three-dimensional space, for instance, we could build a three-dimensional stack of transparent cubes each containing a fairy light to plot the variation in moisture content in the soil at depths beneath as well as across the field.  The location of the fairy lights would correspond to the location beneath the ground and their intensity the moisture content.  I chose this example because we recently used data on soil moisture in a river basin in China in our research (see ‘From strain measurements to assessing El Nino events’ on March 17th 2021).  We can carry on adding variables and, for example if the data were available, consider the change in moisture content with time and three-dimensional location beneath the ground – that’s five-dimensional data.  We could change the intensity of the fairy lights with time to show the variation of moisture content with time.  My brain struggles to conceive how to represent six-dimensional data though mathematically it is simple to continue adding dimensions.  It is also challenging to compare datasets with so many variables or dimensions so part of our research has been focussed on elegant methods of making comparisons.  We have been able to reduce maps of data – the chessboard of fairy lights – to a feature vector (a short string of numbers) for some time now [see ‘Recognizing strain’ on October 28th, 2015 and ‘Nudging discoveries along the innovation path’ on October 19th, 2022]; however, very recently we have extended this capability to volumes of data – the stack of transparent cubes with fairy lights in them.  The feature vector is slightly longer but can be used track changes in condition, for instance, in a composite component using computer tomography (CT) data or to validate simulations of stress or possibly fluid flow [see ‘Reliable predictions of non-Newtonian flows of sludge’ on March 29th, 2023].  There is no reason why we cannot extend it further to six or more dimensional data but it is challenging to find an engineering application, at least at the moment.

Photo by PCmarja2006 on Flickr

Reliable predictions of non-Newtonian flows of sludge

Regular readers of this blog will be aware that I have been working for many years on validation processes for computational models of structures employed in a wide range of sectors, including aerospace engineering [see ‘The blind leading the blind’ on May 27th, 2020] and nuclear energy [see ‘Million to one’ on November 21st, 2018].  Validation is determining the extent to which predictions from a model are representative of behaviour in the real-world [see ‘Model validation’ on September 18th, 2012].  More recently, I have been working on model credibility, which is the willingness of people, besides the modeller, to use the predictions from models in decision-making [see, for example, ‘Credible predictions for regulatory decision-making’ on December 9th, 2020].  I have started to consider the complex world of predictive modelling of fluid flow and I am hoping to start a collaboration with a new colleague on the flow of sludges.  Sludges are more common than you might think but we are interested in modelling the flow of waste, both wastewater (sewage) and nuclear wastes.  We have a PhD studentship available sponsored jointly by the GREEN CDT and the National Nuclear Laboratory.  The project is interdisciplinary in two dimensions because it will combine experiments and simulations as well as uniting ideas from solid mechanics and fluid mechanics.  The integration of concepts and technologies across these boundaries brings a level of adventure to the project which will be countered by building on well-established research in solid mechanics on quantitative comparisons of measurements and predictions and by employing current numerical and experimental work on wastewater sludges.  If you are interested or know someone who might want to join our research then you can find out more here.

Image: Sewage sludge disposal in Germany: Andrea Roskosch / UBA

A conversation about a virtual world and global extinction

Photograph of an octopusI went for a haircut a week or so ago and my barber asked me about the books I had been reading recently.  He always has a book on the shelf next to him and sometimes I find him reading when I arrive and the shop is quiet.  So it is not unusual for us to talk about our current books.  I told him about ‘Reality+: virtual worlds and the problems of philosophy’ by David Chalmers which led into a conversation about the possibility that we are in a simulation.  My posts on this topic [see ‘Are we in a simulation’ on September 28th 2022 and ‘Virtual digitalism’ on December 7th, 2022] have provoked a number of negative reactions.  People either think I have written nonsense or would rather not consider the prospect of us being part of a giant simulation.  Fortunately, my barber was happy to accept the possibility that we were part of a simulation which led to a discussion about whether our creator was the equivalent of a teenager playing on a computer in their bedroom or a scientist interested in the evolution of society; and, in either case, why they would have decided to give us hair on our heads that grows steadily throughout our life – perhaps as a personal indication of the passage of time or, simply to provide a living for barbers.  The development of human society and the use of probability to reason that a more advanced society might have created a virtual world in which we are living also led us to talk about the probability that a more advanced society finding us on Earth would annihilate us without pausing to learn about us in the same way that we are destroying all other forms of intelligent life on the planet.  For example, populations of vertebrates living in freshwater ecosystems have declined by 83% on average since 1970 [see World Wide Fund for Nature Living Planet Report 2022].  Maybe it would be preferable for someone to switch off the simulation rather than to suffer the type of invasion mounted by the Martians in the War of the Worlds by HG Wells.

Regular readers with good memories might recall a post entitled ‘Conversations about engineering over dinner and a haircut’ on February 16th, 2022 which featured the same barber who I visit more frequently than these two posts might imply.

The image shows Ollie the Octopus at the Ocean Lab, (Ceridwen CC BY-SA 2.0) for more on the intelligence of an octopus see ‘Intelligent aliens?‘ on January 16th, 2019.