Tag Archives: carbon footprint

It was hot in June and its getting hotter

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Decorative image of a summer flowerLast month was the first June on record when the daily average global 2-metre surface temperature exceeded 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels [1] and last week, on July 6th, the daily global air temperature hit a record high of 17.23 °C [2]  In 2020 it was estimated that the world’s remaining carbon budget was about 500 gigatonnes CO2 if there was to be a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. It is now estimated that the remaining budget is about 250 gigatonnes CO2, i.e., it has halved in three years, as a result of continued pollution and temperatures rising faster than expected [3].  At the current rate of emissions, this budget will be exhausted in about six years.  Hence, it seems very likely that global temperatures will rise by more than 1.5 °C and perhaps by as much as 4 °C this century.  The last time the Earth was that hot was about 15 million years ago during the Miocene when sea levels were 40 m higher [4].  It is time to get much more serious about reducing carbon emissions instead of just talking about it.  Current targets for reducing emissions are so far in the future that they are beyond the horizon – effectively out of sight and out of mind.  We need to be costing everything in terms of carbon emissions and making decisions that reduce emissions now.

[1] Climate graphic of the week: first days of June bring record heat, FT June 17, 2023.

[2] Global temperature hits record high, FT Weekend 8th July 2023 based on data from NOAA.

[3] Forster PM, Smith CJ, Walsh T, Lamb WF, Lamboll R, Hauser M, Ribes A, Rosen D, Gillett N, Palmer MD, Rogelj J. Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data. 15(6):2295-327, 2023.

[4] Foster GL, Rohling EJ. Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110(4):1209-14, 2013.

Conflicted about cost-benefit analysis of international conferences

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Decorative image of an aircraftLast week I wrote about my stimulating experience of attending a conference in Orlando, Florida and presenting our recent research to the experimental mechanics community for the first time in four years.  Whilst there, I was conscious of the ecological footprint of my trip – the venue was making extensive use of single use plastics on a scale that surprised me.  However, my trans-Atlantic flight had an order of magnitude larger impact.  It is difficult to find a reliable estimate of the carbon emissions for a return flight between the UK and Florida but 1,267 kg CO2 from the Guardian newspaper website lies between a lower bound estimate of 856 kg CO2 from iata.org and and an upper bound of 2,200 kg CO2 from myclimate.org.  This is equivalent to about one-sixth of my annual domestic carbon footprint of 9,000 kg CO2 using the calculator on the World Wildlife Fund website.  The UK average footprint is 9,300 kg CO2/capita and the global average is 6,300 kg CO2/capita.  The question is whether it is justifiable to generate additional emissions to attend a research conference?  The prime motivation of the research that I presented is to support the development of aircraft which are lighter with less embedded carbon and use less energy while also having a longer useful life.  Ultimately, supporting the aviation industry to achieve its target of zero-net emissions by 2050.  The carbon emissions of the global aviation industry in 2021 were 720 Mt CO2 [see IEA report]; hence, if my research contributes towards one hundredth of a percent reduction in these emissions then this would be 72,000 kg CO2/year.  It seems reasonable to cause a tenth of this annual saving each year (7,200 kg CO2/year) for the next ten years in order to deliver the required technology, i.e., committing one year’s savings to achieve an annual saving in perpetuity.  The problem is that I do not have a reliable estimate of the carbon footprint of my research activities.  I supervised an MSc student a couple of years ago who conducted a carbon audit of the School of Engineering and estimated the carbon emissions due to research alone to be 61,531 kg CO2 excluding heating, lighting and travel.  My group might be responsible for 10% of these emissions, i.e., about 6000 kg CO2; hence, adding about 1,200 kg CO2 to interact with other researchers at a conference seems reasonable and within a budget of 7,200 kg CO2. However, it is difficult to find reliable data to use in estimating carbon emissions for these activities and so perhaps the key conclusion is that we need more and better carbon audits to allow more informed decision-making.  In the meantime, perhaps attendence at an international conference once every four years is sufficient.

Image: Tayeb Mezahdia

Are we all free riders?

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girl in smogThe ‘tragedy of the commons’ is an economic theory founded on the idea that when there is unregulated use of a shared resource then the rational consumer, acting independently and in their own interests, will maximise their consumption leading to the depletion or destruction of the resource.  For example, if there is no cost or limit to grazing sheep on common land then a rational shepherd would maximise their flock size in order to maximise profit.  Eventually, the commons’ ability to sustain the sheep is overwhelmed and it becomes a wasteland.  Are we all taking a free ride on the world’s ecosystem?  Our cars and houses freely pump out huge quantities of carbon dioxide that are overwhelming our ecosystem.  Most of us do nothing – either because we refuse to believe the evidence, or we believe it is not in our interests to act, or we don’t think it is our problem, or we don’t know what to do, or a combination of these excuses.

This might seem a low priority to you.  But, for the 40% of the world’s population that live in the five countries with the worst air quality, it is a high priority.  If you visit these countries, you experience days when it is difficult to breathe because the pollution is so bad and it is hard to read your smartphone because the air is so thick with particles.  We are all part of a single ecosystem on the planet, Gaia if you like, and we are joined to one another through a myriad of connections.  So we ignore this issue at our peril, or the peril of our grandchildren.

It seems unlikely that our leaders will take effective coordinated action and so grass roots action is needed as suggested by Kofi Annan.  Assess your carbon footprint now and think about ways to become carbon neutral.  If you want to find out the carbon footprint of your organization then the Carbon Trust has useful information and services.

Sources:

The Economist Pocket World in Figures 2015 edition, Profile Books Ltd, London 2014

Thumbnail: http://blogs-images.forbes.com/benjaminshobert/files/2015/01/China_Smog2-1940×1293.jpg

New Year Resolution

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I started 2014 with a post on January 1st about the ‘Knowledge Economy‘ in which I extolled the virtues of knowledge-based rather than energy-based agriculture and engineering.  At the end of the year, oil prices have dropped from $110 to about  $60 per barrel, making it likely that in most countries the energy-based economy will continue to dominate.  In the USA, sales are rising of huge gas-guzzling cars, such as the Escalade, which is 5.15m (17ft) long, weighs 2.59 tonnes and only manages an average of 17 miles per gallon!  Fossil fuels account for approximately 80% of world energy consumption and are responsible for most greenhouse gas production.  During 2014 it was reported that greenhouse gases were rising at the fastest rate for 30 years but still the countries of the UN meeting in Lima before Christmas only agreed that those countries who were ‘ready to do so’ should submit national pledges on cutting emissions in the first of quarter of 2015.

The global average temperature is within one degree of the maximum temperature in the last million years, and a 2 degree rise would be equal to the temperature three million years ago when the sea level was 15 to 23m (80 to 130 feet) higher.  A 1 metre rise in sea level would displace 145 million people, and there is evidence that it has been  rising at 3.5mm per year during the last 20 years which is twice as fast as during the previous 80 years.

How bad does the condition of the planet need to get before effective action is taken?  How many more islands, like the Carteret Islands, will have to disappear?  How many more people than the 7 million in 2012 will have to die prematurely as a consequence of air pollution? Cities such as Beijing are beginning to be described as ‘almost uninhabitable’.  Kofi Annan has suggested that grass roots action is needed because our leaders will not take action in time. So tonight make it your New Year Resolution to reduce your carbon footprint in 2015 by 15%.

Estimate your current carbon footprint using an on-line calculator and starting working out how to reduce it.  If you want to find out the carbon footprint of your organization then the Carbon Trust has useful information and services.

Sources:

‘Inside Beijing’s airpocalypse – a city made “almost uninhabitable” by pollution‘ by Oliver Wainwright in The Guardian on Tuesday 16th December, 2014.

Blockstein DE, Wiegman L, The Climate Solutions Consensus. Island Press, Washington, 2010.

Links to previous posts:

‘Year of Air:2013‘ on November 20th, 2013 or ‘Mass-produced nuclear power plants?‘ on November 12th, 2014.