Category Archives: Soapbox

Slow down, breathe your own air

flytrapFor many of us the pace of life will have accelerated to a fever pitch as the holiday season approached and we tried to complete time-sensitive tasks while being deluged with emails, messages, images, reports and demands for a slice of our time. Fredrik Sjoberg in his delightful book, ‘The Fly Trap‘ suggests that ‘if you think the torrent goes too fast, then in nine out of ten cases you can turn it off or just close your eyes and breathe your own air for a while.’ Nile crocodiles have a life expectancy of 100 years which some have attributed to their ability to slow their metabolism. ‘Unfussed, they can reduce their heart rate to about three beats a minute’ according to Peter Hughes. So in this holiday season: switch off, close your eyes, go mind-wandering (see my post entitled ‘Mind wandering‘ on September 3rd, 2014) and you are likely to live longer and have time for everything.

Happy holidays!

Sources:

Fredrik Sjoberg, The Fly Trap, Penguin Books, 2015

Peter Hughes, ‘Gently does it’, Financial Times Weekend, 17/18 October 2015

Small is beautiful and economic

tractorFarm tractors have been growing bigger and bigger, though perhaps not everywhere – the photograph was taken in Donegal, Ireland earlier this year.  The size of tractors is driven by the economics of needing a driver in the cab. The labour costs are high in many places, so that the productivity per tractor driver has to be high too.  Hence, the tractors have to move fast and process a large amount of the field on each pass.  This leads to enormous tractors that weigh a lot and exert a large pressure on the soil, which in turn results in between 1 and 3% of the farm land becoming unproductive because crops won’t grow in the severely compressed soil. But what happens if we eliminate the need for the driver by using autonomous vehicles? Then, we can have smaller vehicles working 24/7 that do less damage and are cheaper, which means that a single machine breakdown doesn’t bring work to halt. We can also contemplate tailoring the farming of each field to the local environmental and soil conditions instead a mono-crop one-size fits all approach. These are not my ideas but were espoused by Peter Cooke of the Queensland University of Technology at a recent meeting at the Royal Society on ‘Robotics and Autonomous Systems’.

It is a similar argument for modular nuclear power stations. Most of the world is intent on building enormous reactors capable of generating several GigaWatts of power (that’s typically 3 with nine zeros after it) at a cost of around £8 billion (that’s 8 with nine zeros) so about 50 pence per Watt. Such a massive amount of power requires a massive infrastructure to deliver the power to where it is need and a shutdown for maintenance or a breakdown potentially cuts power to about a million people. The alternative is small modular reactors built, and later dismantled, in a factory that leave an uncontaminated site at a lower capital cost and which provide a more flexible power feed into the national grid. Some commentators (see for example Editor’s comment in Professsional Engineer, November 2015)believe that a factory could be established and rolling modular reactors off its production line on the same timescale as building a GigaWatt station.

Regular readers will recognise a familiar theme found in Small is beautiful and affordable in nuclear powerstations on January 14th, 2015, Enabling or disruptive technology for nuclear engineering on January 28th, 2015 and Small is beautiful on October 10th, 2012; as well as the agricultural theme in Knowledge-economy on January 1st, 2014.

Unexpected bad news for turkeys

http://www.penguin.co.uk/books/the-black-swan/9780141034591/Risk is defined as the probability of something happening multiplied by consequences of its occurrence.  Engineers expend considerable time and effort in reducing the consequences of the quite probable such as ensuring the passenger compartment of a car will remain largely intact during a crash.  The installation of automatic breaking systems on some cars is also an attempt to reduce the probability of an impact, i.e. the occurrence of a crash.  It is difficult to anticipate the very low probability event with catastrophic consequences and so cars are not designed to deal with meteors dropping out the sky or even elevated highways collapsing in an earthquake.   These are what Nassim Taleb, labels Black Swan events but would perhaps be better named after another bird, the more humble turkey.  An American turkey is fed daily by a friendly human and has no idea in November that Thanksgiving is about happen with fatal consequences, or substitute December and Christmas for a British turkey.  From the turkey’s perspective everything is fine down on the farm until it isn’t; in other words, the very low probability event with catastrophic consequences occurs.  From the farmer’s perspective, turkey for dinner at Thanksgiving is close to a certainty, i.e. a probability of one.  The problem for engineers designing machines is to have the perspective of the farmer and not the turkey.

Happy Thanksgiving to my American readers!

Source:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan – the impact of the highly probable, London: Penguin Books, 2008.

Talk to people not computers

liverpoolplayhouseRecently, we went to see the Glass Menagerie by Tennessee Williams at the Liverpool Playhouse.  There is a wonderful line in it ‘People go to the movies instead of moving’ when Tom Wingfield comments on everyone living life vicariously through the action-packed life of Hollywood stars.  The play was written in the 1940s long before the advent of smart phones.  Nowadays people interact with their smart phones rather than with the people around them but still live vicariously through the lives of celebrities.  Recent research has found that many people today would actually prefer to deal with computers that appear to understand them rather than with other people, according to Richard Waters.  This is a shame because one of the things that makes humans different to computers is our ‘inbuilt propensity for social interaction’.  Computers are unlikely ever to replicate our emotions, curiosity, irrationality or creativity (See my post entitled ‘Engineers are slow, error-prone…‘ on April 29th, 2015).  So put down your phone or switch off your computer and interact with your fellow human beings.

Sources:

Richard Waters, Jobs for droids, Essay in Financial Times, Weekend 17/18 October 2015