Imagination is your superpower

About a year ago I wrote an update on the hype around AI [see ‘Update on position of AI on hype curve: it cannot dream’ on July 26th, 2023].  Gartner’s hype curve has a ‘peak of inflated expectations’, followed by a ‘trough of disillusionment’ then an upward ‘slope of enlightenment’ leading to a ‘plateau of productivity’ [see ‘Hype cycle’ on September 23rd 2015].  It is unclear where AI is on the hype curve.  Tech companies are still pretty excited about it and advertising is beginning to claim that all sorts of products are augmented by AI.  Maybe there is a hint of unfulfilled expectations which suggest being on the downward slope towards a trough of disillusionment; however, these analyses can really only be performed retrospectively.  It is clear that we can create algorithms capable of artificial generative intelligence which can accomplish levels of creativity similar to a human in a specific task.  However, we cannot create artificial general intelligence that can perform like a human across a wide range of tasks and achieve sentience.  Current artificial intelligence algorithms consume our words, images and decisions to replay them to us.  Shannon Vallor has suggested that AI algorithms are ‘giant mirrors made of code’ and that ‘these mirrors know no more of the lived experience of thinking and feeling than our bedroom mirrors know our inner aches and pains’.  The challenge facing us is that AI will make us lazy and that we will lose the capacity to think and solve new problems creatively.  Instead of making myself a cup of coffee and sitting down to gather my thoughts and dream up a short piece for this blog, I could have put the title into ChatGPT and the task would have been done in about two minutes.  I just did and it told me that imagination is a truly powerful force that fuels creativity, innovation and problem-solving allowing us to envision new possibilities, create stories and invent technologies.  Imagination is the key to unlocking potential and driving progress.  This is remarkably similar to parts of an article in the FT newspaper on November 25, 2023 by Martin Allen Morales titled ‘We need imagination to realise the good, not just stave off the bad’.  What is missing from the ChatGPT version is the recognition that imagination is a human superpower and without it we have no hope of ever achieving anything beyond what already exists.

Sources

Becky Hogge, Through the looking glass, FT Weekend, May 29, 2024.

Martin Allen Morales, We need imagination to realise the good, not just stave off the bad, FT Weekend, November 25, 2023.

Shannon Vallor, The AI Mirror: How to Reclaim our Humanity in an Age of Machine Thinking, OUP, April, 2024.

Where has the blue planet gone?

Decorative image showing 'snowball' EarthThey had moved across the galaxy at half the speed of light, covering the 17.6 light-years from their planet in the orbit of Ehseaplus to the Sol system in a couple of hundred days and now they had slowed down their inter-constellation craft to manoeuvre prior to landing on the planet Sol III.  They were looking for a blue planet but they had found two reddish planets orbiting the star, Sol adjacent to an asteroid belt.  Their expedition had been launched after an alien object had been detected and recovered as it passed about two light-years from their planet, Ehseaplus VI.  The recovered object, which at some point appeared to have had an atomic energy source, carried on its exterior surface a gold-plated disc with primitive representations of various lifeforms and a map that appeared to suggest that the object had come from a planet orbiting the star, Sol.  Although, they had not been able to detect any artificial signals from that part of the Milky Way, their mission was to make contact with the lifeforms.  However, it appeared that Sol III was no longer blue but had become a cold, dark planet like its neighbour, Sol IV.  As they orbited Sol III, their sensor systems told them that most of the planet was covered by a thick ice-sheet with a dusting of volcanic ash, which they presumed was from volcanoes that dotted its surface – they counted about fifty of them erupting as they orbited the planet.  Their sensors also informed them that the atmosphere contained some water crystals and large amounts of carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide.  Their explorations of the galaxy had not revealed any lifeforms capable of surviving in such an atmosphere so they were beginning to think that they had had a wasted journey.  They discussed their findings with mission control and concluded that the lifeforms responsible for the representations on the gold disc must have become extinct.  A catastrophic climate change had probably led to a mass extinction though they could not deduce whether the catastrophe had occurred due to an asteroid strike or the activities of the lifeform causing the planet’s climate to reach a tipping point.  The navigation system of their craft was weaving a gently curving path through what appeared to be tens of thousands of artificial objects in orbit around Sol III.  So, they launched one of the crafts’s autonomous probes to recover some of the objects and perform some tests which revealed that a crude carbon-based system had been used to push the objects into orbit about 40,000 Sol III years ago.  Maybe the high levels of carbon dioxide they had detected in the atmosphere of Soll III originated from these carbon-based energy systems and excessive use of them had taken the planet’s climate to a tipping point?  They gave up on finding life on Sol III and set course for home.

Footnotes:

  1. I was inspired to write this short story after reading ‘The NASA Archives: from Project Mercury to the Mars rovers’ by Piers Bizony, Andrew Chiakin and Roger Launius (Taschen GmbH, 2022).
  2. The NASA space probe, Voyager 1 was launched in 1977 and is travelling through space at 10 miles per second carrying a gold-plated metal disc with messages from humanity and images of life on Earth. It will pass close to a star, AC+79 3888 in the Ursa Minor constellation in 40,272 AD.
  3. The atmosphere of Mars, the fourth planet from the Sun, is very thin, cold and composed mainly of carbon dioxide. About one-third of the surface of Mars is covered by a very thick layer of ice that is only a spade’s depth beneath the red soil that gives our neighbouring plant its reddish tint when seen from Earth.
  4. Image: NASA snowball planet from https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/05/04/snowball-earth-frozen-solid/

Commoditisation of civil nuclear power

Logo for BBC Inside ScienceA colleague and I published a paper last month that we hope will bring about a paradigm shift in the nuclear power industry. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Inside Science on the day following its publication – its the first time one of my scientific papers has made that big a splash in the media!  You can listen to the programme on BBC Sounds at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001zdwv.

In the paper we describe a blueprint for the factory-production of sealed micro-power units with a digitally-enabled, holistic assurance framework.  Currently, several designs of micro-reactors are progressing to the prototype stage with hazards contained on-site.  The integration of these approaches enables a transformation of the regulatory regime to type or series approval at the factory, similar to the aerospace industry, and supported by digital tools such as block chains to provide transparent quality assurance within the supply chain.  The transformation of the regulatory regime and the shift to ‘flow’ production in a factory would remove the financial risk from the power plant to the factory thereby enabling nuclear power to become a realistic competitor for intermittent green energy sources, such as wind and solar, both in terms of financial and ecological costs.  The output from three production lines could replace the current electricity generating capacity from fossil fuels in the UK over approximately 15 years thus making a significant contribution to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions.  We propose a design philosophy for the micro-power units that will allow them to go unnoticed in an urban environment or even become an iconic product that signals a community’s commitment to responsible stewardship of the Earth’s resources.  Our blueprint represents a revolutionary change for the nuclear power industry that would likely lead to the commoditisation of nuclear power whereas the status quo probably leads to extinction.

The paper is published with open access (its free) at Patterson EA & Taylor RJ, 2024, The commoditisation of civil nuclear power, Royal Society Open Science, 11:240021.

Extra on digital twins

After five months of posting monthly, I cannot resist the temptation to slip in an extra one.  Mainly because I want to let you know about the Pint of Science Festival taking place next week.  In Liverpool we have organised a series of three evenings at the Philharmonic pub on Hope Street featuring talks by engineers from the School of Engineering and the Institute for Digital Engineering and Autonomous Systems (IDEAS) at the University of Liverpool.  I am planning to talk about digital twins – what they are, how we can use them, what they might become and whether we are already part of a digital world.  If you enjoyed reading my posts on ‘Digital twins that thrive in the real world’, ‘Dressing up your digital twin’, and ‘Are we in a simulation?’ then come and discuss digital twins with me in person.  My talk is part of a programme on Digital with Everything on May 15th.  On May 13th and 14th we have programmes on Engineering in Nature and Science of Vision, Colliders and Crashes, respectively.  I hope you can come and join us in the real-world.